Let China Take Care of North Korea
It’s been my position all along. I was going to write a column about this very issue, but Anne Applebaum beat me to it:
But if it is within China’s power to rescue or destroy Kim, then how, exactly, did North Korea’s nuclear weapons program become in any sense the responsibility of the United States? Unlike China, the United States has no diplomatic levers it can use in North Korea, no trade relations of any significance and certainly no shared border. Yet the United States has been leading the effort to persuade the Security Council—of which China is a permanent member—to impose weak sanctions that probably won’t have any impact.
People need to understand that China is not our friend. It is not Canada, not Australia. It’s not even France.
It is our competitor whether we want it to be or not – simply because we are its competitor in the minds of the Chinese.
China has extensive spying operations in North Korea. It knows exactly what is going on there. Why hasn’t it acted more forcefully? Probably because it knows that the North Korean nuclear program is much of a threat except, perhaps, in the long term. In the mean time there is much to be made from rattling the neighbors and keeping the USA busy.
Remember that NK is on its border, and hundreds of thousands of North Koreans live in China. In a sense, North Korea is to China as Mexico is to the United States.
Would the US be happy to find China monkeying around in Mexico – should unrest break out there? Granted, one must be careful with the analogy since the Cold War isn’t over with the United States just yet. A better analogy would be the USSR messing about in Mexico during the 1980s.
Would Reagan have liked that?
China is moving carefully not because it is afraid of upsetting North Korea – but rather it wants to maximize its gain from the situation vis-a-vis the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Let’s not forget that Taiwan is a very sore point with the Chinese. It does not like the security guarantees and support we have offered what it sees as a “rogue province.” Imagine Vermont going independent and being backed by the Chinese. Such things tend to color all aspects of a relationship.
Don’t forget that China isn’t named the “Middle Kingdom” for nothing. While patriotism might be a crime in certain social circles in the US, it is alive and well in China. The Chinese view their nation as a natural successor to the United States in all spheres: economic, military and cultural. While the 20th Century can arguably be called the American Century, China expects the 21st to be its own.
China has much to be gained by a loose cannon ruling North Korea, but it must balance that out by the danger that the cannon will end up blowing up in its face. So far the Chinese haven’t done much. However should North Korea become a liability, you may rest assured that one day South Korean soldiers would wake up and see Chinese soldiers glaring back across the DMZ. China could remove Kim Jong-il from power in minutes, and we wouldn’t know until the next day we noticed the uniforms of the border guards had changed.
So far the United States has recognized this fact and acted accordingly. It has wisely resisted the impulses from both Left and Right to “do something” about North Korea when there is little to be done.
North Korea is China’s responsibility. Condemnations are fine, but beyond that the US shouldn’t worry too much about Kim Jong-il. The Chinese will act when its in their interest to act, not a moment before.
ligneus:
You have it exactly right and it’s good to see Condi taking a low key approach to NK.
20 October 2006, 8:01 pmThose Republicans aren’t as dumb as too many try to make out.