North Korea: Likely Outcomes
Ranked from most likely to least likely:
1. NK continues saber rattling during month of wargames before regime stands down, claiming some imagined diplomatic victory.
2. NK attacks a SK ship or shells islands as it did in 2011. US pulls out all stops to prevent SK from escalating.
3. NK attacks a Japanese target using conventional weaponry.
4. China responds to “call for assistance” by NK leader Kim Jung Un, Chinese forces in NK calm.
5. NK attacks the Japanese using nukes.
6. NK invades SK.
7. Black Swan.
Update: 1 more likely given US fear of upsetting the young Un. “We accused the North Koreans of amping things up, now we are worried we did the same thing,” one Defense Department official said.
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