Prediction: By 2011 Google Won’t Exist
I’m going out on a limb here but this comment got me thinking about the excesses of the Dot Com Era and today’s Google. For those who weren’t paying attention 7 years ago, simply read articles about Google today and you can relive the era when Pets.com, Value America and WebVan were set to change the way we lived and did business.
It didn’t happen then and I don’t see how it’s going to happen now.
Since I DO plan to be around in 5 years, let’s make it as air-tight a prediction as possible.
1. I believe that Google will fail as a company because it will face increased competition in it’s main revenue stream – the Adsense ad server – and it will have to spend serious cash in order to buy access to other revenue streams. While stock buyouts may be used to do this, I believe that those with the best prospects will require cash.
2. Most markets are already saturated with competition. Google will have to either find a completely new market or compete against others. So far it has shown little aptitude for competition – unlike Microsoft which is a true hypercompetitor.
3. Google may be weakened over the next five years to the point that it is purchased by another firm. While Google may still continue to exist, it will not exist in the form predicted by those who view it as unstoppable in the year 2006.
So there, I’m on record. And if I had shorted it’s stock three weeks ago I’d already have enough cash to celebrate this prediction in style. But I didn’t so waaah.
The Razor » Blog Archive » The Razor Celebrates 13 Years:
[...] my predictions made in this journal and the positions I have argued have been proven wrong. In 2006 I said Google wouldn’t be around in 2011 and that Lindsay Lohan would die tragically in 2007. 8 years later Google is still my homepage and [...]
7 October 2014, 10:27 am