Peering Into The American Political Landscape
In a week the American political landscape will have changed – to what degree is impossible to tell. I suspect that regardless of the outcome, Obama and his supporters will spin it as a victory. They will trumpet each defeat of a Tea Party-backed candidate while completely ignoring the losses of Democrats. I suspect they will congratulate themselves for “limiting the damage” or “turning the tide” of the Republicans regardless how well the latter does. Politicians call such statements “spin”; the rest of us call them “lies”. So no matter what happens be prepared to be lied to over the next few weeks.
Obama has already touted Clinton’s success at surviving the Republican’s surge in 1994, but at the very least what will follow for the next two years will be a curbing of Obama’s leftist agenda. The problem for Obama is he is no Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton was a governor of a Southern state who took office as a moderate after years of moderate policies. The presidency is the first executive experience Obama has had, and rose to the top propelled by a combination of hard Left ideals, liberal racial guilt, and the Peter Principle. Contrary to what Republicans may have thought at the time, it was relatively easy for Clinton to move to the Right to dodge much of their Contract for America. It will be impossible for Obama to do the same because what Obama considers the Right is to the left of center for the majority of voters. Hanging around like-minded liberals for your career will skew your perspective, and from Obama’s performance in office so far it’s clear that the man doesn’t understand the American political landscape as much as he believes.
That is why I believe a replay of the political dynamics of 1994-96 is unlikely in 2010-12. Add in the fundamental fact that History never repeats itself in the way we think and is nearly impossible that Obama will repeat Clinton’s success at re-election.
That isn’t to say that Obama won’t be re-elected. In fact at this point I would have to say that if his re-election were being held next Tuesday, he would likely eek out a victory. Granted, he would squeeze out a win against an amorphous generic Republican opponent, but 21 months is simply not enough time for all but the gravest doubters among independents and Democrats to give up the figure they elected to office in 2008. After all, they didn’t elect a man to office – they elected a symbol, and symbols take a long time to die.
The next 15 months will be Obama’s acid test. He will be forced to govern, instead of mailing it in from a golf course while a Leftist Congress does his work for him. Blaming George Bush will gain even less traction than it does today, although it is likely that he will try to turn the Republicans into a scapegoat. The problem with the latter strategy is that the Republicans will have some power and will be able to enact legislation that forces Obama to act. Some of this legislation will be tempered by a more left-wing Senate than the expected Republican-controlled House, but Obama will be forced to make decisions on legislation that he does not support. And Obama has shown the inability to be decisive – a remarkable deficit in a modern leader.
Governing will be made even harder by the fact that the Democrats who survive the election will have done so in spite of Obama, not because of him. Obama’s political capital deficit is nowhere near as large as the deficit he has created in the federal budget, but it’s significant. Democratic politicians will bear the brunt of his unpopularity this election, and won’t own him any favors for when the time comes for his re-election campaign – which starts in earnest in just over a year or so.
That completely ignores the opinion of my elderly neighbor, a god-fearing woman who had Obama pictures hanging throughout her house. I spoke to her over the weekend. The Obama pictures have been taken down and what remains are the bitter words of a former Obama supporter who regrets her vote and hopes to live long enough to vote him out of office. Are former supporters like her rare in the landscape? Perhaps, but I would guess that they are more numerous than minority listeners of NPR.
10/27/2010 UPDATE:
It’s worth remembering how we got to where we are today. In her piece Elections Have Consequences Debbie Hamilton reminds us “Obama’s demise is his own doing. Obama’s presidency and policies are the reason for the TEA party and the return to the Constitution by Republicans, some Democrats, and some Independents.” Yep. The political landscape would have been vastly different had Obama governed in a bi-partisan way. But he was never a bi-partisan thinker. It’s difficult to take your opponent seriously if you never listen to his ideas or put yourself in her shoes. Obama never had the intellectual capacity to do that – and still doesn’t judging by his recent statements.
Watcher of Weasels » Watcher Council Nominations October 27, 2010:
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27 October 2010, 7:48 amWatcher of Weasels » The Council has Spoken 10/29/2010:
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27 October 2010, 11:06 pm