The Logic of Failure Applied to Anti-Bushies
I am a big fan of the book, The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Dorner. I have read it several times, pulled it off the shelf to lend to my boss, and now I am reading it again. It is for anyone who deals with complex problems on a regular basis – which is just about everyone, but especially those in the information technology (IT) field.
One of the ways we fail, according to Dorner, is by refusing to give up on an idea we have even when it has been proven wrong. In order to succeed, we need to remain as objective as possible and reevaluate our assumptions continually based on the evidence we have at any given time.
I was thinking about this after visiting a few blogs this morning that discussed the tenacity of those who push the “Bush Lied” myth. Since the invasion of Iraq the evidence has pointed to a large-scale intelligence “mistake” of a global scale: everyone from the Russians, French, Germans, UN, British and even lowly Canadian intelligence services believed that Saddam’s WMD programs existed and constituted a threat. So far this intelligence has proven misguided at best, flat-out wrong at worst.
Bush acted based on this knowledge, and acted reasonably given the circumstances. To test this, reverse the situation and imagine that Al Gore was president, had been presented with intelligence from numerous independent agencies that Iraq had WMDs and planned to use them. Imagine that Gore didn’t act, and something terrible happened – like a nuke or chemical attack on Tel Aviv or Riyadh. Would the Democrats and anti-Bushies be able to remain firmly behind their man?
It’s unlikely. Truth isn’t easy sometimes, especially when it goes against our assumptions. In this case the truth is that no matter how much you hate Bush, he didn’t lie. Yet people continue to believe that Bush lied. They cannot change or let go of their assumption.
This is a classic example that proves Dorner’s point about the logic of Failure. It is a logic that leads me to suspect the anti-Bushies will fail in November – although 3 months is a long time in politics. Still, it shows a structural problem that will make success even harder to achieve on the anti-Bush side.
Again, read Dorner’s book. Now.
