The Cry Wolf Effect
Things are progressing on the job search front, so I haven’t forgotten about this place. No comments yet on the redesign so I’ll just assume that all is well.
One of the biggest concerns I have in Iraq is the “Cry Wolf” effect. Given the intelligence failure to find WMD, on top of previous failures in Afghanistan and worst of all, 9-11, it’s hard for even a hardcore Machiavellian realist like me to buy anything that our intelligence comes up with regarding Iran and North Korea. This is a major problem, given that our intelligence in NK may be much better (it’s easier to bribe someone who’s starving to death) and the consequences much worse. Seoul is 26 miles away from the DMZ. All of Japan is within NK missile range, and Taiwan, Alaska and the West Coast are within range of their latest ones. As a Californian myself, I am not to keen about the latter prospects, although a limited detonation above the UC-Berkeley campus this Fall wouldn’t be all that bad.
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