What to do about Iran
StrategyPage has an essay on Iran titled “It’s so Confusing“. After reading it, I’m sure you’ll agree because I’m a bit thrown by it too. The essence of the article is that Iranian society is very complex, and our efforts to contain the “Mad Mullahs” can drive the people to support them if we aren’t careful.
So far it appears that we are doing the right thing by pursuing a diplomatic solution. We should consider treating Iran the same way we treat North Korea - ignoring it’s public outbursts, punishing its negative behavior and rewarding the positive. Nothing drives a dictator like Kim Jong il more nuts than to have an outburst and be completely ignored. We should treat Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the exact same way. Deny the Holocaust? Well, that’s predictable. Wipe Israel off the map? Heh, just try. Anti-Semitic cartoon contest? Yawn.
The US must remember that it has less to lose than many of the regional players; consequently it needs to resist the temptation to fix everything and let the smaller players do more to change the behavior of the local “bad-boy” regime. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and even Pakistan don’t want to see a nuclear-armed apostate regime (don’t forget that Shi’a are to Sunnis what 16th century Protestants were to Catholic and Inquisition-ruled Spain). The likelihood of Iran passing on nuclear weapons to terrorists is minimal, as al-Qaeda - an organization founded on the belief that America was still ruled by Jimmy Carter and wouldn’t strike back - has shown itself incapable of fighting the US or controlling its actions. Even passing the arms to Hezbollah, Hamas or other likeminded terror groups in and around the Middle East wouldn’t be reasonable since the discovery of such technology transfer could trigger an attack. Plus, nuking Israel would simply be suicide of the highest order that surely the Mad Mullahs themselves understand.
So the only solution is to wait them out and hope - yes hope - that as time goes by the Iranian leadership is replaced by someone else before they acquire nukes. We must face the fact that even if they do acquire nukes, the risks of a nuclear armed Iran are outweighed by the risk attending to an invasion of Iran. The world will be slightly more dangerous over the coming years but it’s not like we have any better choices.
