Parting Shots

"An expert is one who knows more about less," Nicholas Murray Butler

Judging by the morning news stories, it seems apparent that the Washington area sniper has been captured and is now behind bars. His undoing? In an investigation manned by a thousand law enforcement officers doing the methodical and tedious criminal investigation work, we will no doubt find that there is no single bit of evidence which clinches the guilt of John Williams aka John Mohammed. However at this time there is one bit of evidence that has left some Americans scratching their heads: he apparently wanted $10 million transferred to a stolen credit card number. If true, this leads to another question:

Huh?

If true, this only serves to prove the limits of expertise, and why, in the end, most criminals are destined to be caught.

The sniper was good at two things: shooting people from a distance and getting away. Eventually luck would have played a part in the preventing the latter. The almost complete lock-down of the DC area only moments after a shooting would have eventually netted him. Luck is an important part of escape, and luck eventually runs out.

As soon as the sniper moved beyond his expertise, he was in trouble. The police have access to countless experts in numerous fields; the sniper doesn't. Leave a note in the field? The police will use experts to determine where the paper and ink was purchased as well as those who can raise fingerprints that are left through gloves. Add to this handwriting experts, psychological profilers, and that single note becomes multiple clues pointing to the identity of the sniper. Call the police? The police have sophisticated electronics that can trace a call instantly (no more of that 30 seconds delay that was such a staple of the movies). Better yet they have access to speech experts who can tell which part of the world and possibly which profession he is in, audio experts who can pull ambient sounds from the background, as well as others that can provide leads.

All these experts will become apparent as the case is made public.

This does not mean that Mohammed made the task force's job easy; far from it. This case will no doubt be studied for years in criminology circles for what the police did right (Police Chief Moose's handling of the crisis) and what they did wrong (FBI mishandling of phone calls). Police Chief Moose stands out in particular for his cool head during the crisis, his marshalling of forces, and especially his ability to get the sniper communicating while at the same time doing his best to reassure a community near panic. The man deserves a special commendation and a better job.