Many years ago back in my college days I took a class on revolution taught by an Israeli marxist. Even though my politics have shifted rightward from where they were back then, I haven’t forgotten what I learned in that class and recognize it as being one of the better ones I had during my 6 years in academia.
One of the important things I learned was that it is the nature of revolutions to turn on themselves. In the end, the revolutionaries always turn into that which they revolted against in the first place. The rebels become the regime, and during that process they inevitably turn on their leaders. The death warrant of Danton is inevitably signed by Robespierre who in turn is guillotined by those he once led.
Every revolution follows this cycle, and its presence indicates that a revolution is in progress. By this measure it is clear that the Democratic party is in the final stages of a revolution begun by the so-called “Deaniacs” three years ago. Howard Dean’s candidacy was energized by liberal bloggers, who organized a grass roots campaign that resulted in a juggernaut behind Dean’s candidacy. Don’t forget that at one point, Al Gore, Bill Bradley and Jimmy Carter supported Howard Dean’s candidacy and recommended that other candidates unite behind Howard Dean in January 2004.
However, the Democratic powerbrokers including the Clintons’ man Terry McAuliffe , head of the DNC, stymied this revolt temporarily as he engineered John Kerry’s candidacy.
After Kerry lost the ‘04 election, the revolutionaries took power with the usurping of McAuliffe in Feb 05, and have since pushed the national party leftward under the leadership of Howard Dean.
We are currently in a stage of ideological “purification” – think Mao’s Cultural Revolution here – where the troops all carry their little red books, don red scarves, and rat-out their parents as “counter-revolutionaries”. The most visible attacks are centered on Joe Lieberman, who has suffered some of the nastiest attacks I’ve ever seen in a democracy – let alone in a liberal-on-liberal attack. That’s monstrous stuff – beyond the pale of even the most enthusiastic Rove-fan. Now other Democratic politicians are running scared, afraid to find themselves in the cross-hairs of the “purification cadres”. Others inevitably will find themselves in that position before the ‘06 election is over in 4 months. 4 months is plenty of time for careers to be shortened, reputations ruined.
But the cycle of revolution will not stop. Eventually the moderates who survived the purges eventually retake power in the stage known as Thermidorian Reaction (Marx is big on stages) after the revolutionaries weaken their cause by destroying themselves.
When will that happen?
There are two possible points:
1. the November ‘06 Election - The Deaniacs demand an oath of fealty to their belief that the Iraq War is a failure – just at a time when the war is petering out and the Iraqis are taking care of themselves. Should the war fail to be the defining issue in November, their “ideological” candidates will be trounced at the polls. This will force Dean to quit the DNC and leave the Deaniacs stunned, disheartened, and eventually apathetic – allowing the moderates to take back the party.
2. the November ‘08 Election - Should the Deaniacs survive the midterm elections, they will be even more energized and place a McGovern-type presidential candidate at the head of their party. While Americans may not like the Iraq War, the odds are that they will like an ideological candidate even less. Expect a landslide victory for the Republicans along the lines of ‘72 or ‘80.
Americans aren’t very ideological. Most are too busy to be energized by any one particular issue. Given the conditions of a growing economy and a war that is successful in its aims in Iraq, as shown by the failure of the anti-war movement to gain traction during the past 5 years, then it is likely that the revolutionaries will fail; it’s only a question as to when.
I’ll predict November ‘06 as of today, July 10, 2006. If I’m wrong, be sure to stop by and view my apology which I will hyperlink to here if and when it is necessary.
